The New Geostrategic Dilemma of the Modern Middle East - Probable Contours of the Iran-Israel War: Myth and Reality

Abstract

The year 2024 began with a complicated situation in the Mid­dle East. While the situation in Iraq became extremely complicated bet­ween the US and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Their confrontation reached an extreme point and temporarily ended the so-called With a "truce of prestige" that may not last long.

The downing of the Ukrainian airliner is one of the most tragic events of this confrontation. It is natural that Iran's geostrategic inter­ests also crossed in Syria, because if the dynastic regime of the Alawite ruler Assad, allied to Iran, falls, it will be accompanied by the activation of Islamic radical groups of Sunni orientation (that is, the "Iraqi" scenario will be played out, which implies the restriction of the rights of the Shiite population). by the USA against Iran, the so-called Promotion of the "anacondi" strategy (the US authorities, especially the previous administration, tried to throw the "loop" of this concept in the direction of the South Caucasus as well). At this stage, the likely prospect of a local war between Israel and Iran becomes even more relevant, because Israel is a strategic partner of the US in the Middle East, and Israel is a never-sleeping enemy for Iran, since the "Cold War" period. This paper will briefly present how the probable scenario of this war could develop.